Cycle Guru Memo July 27, 2010

The cycle gurus issue their weekly missive tomorrow, we hope they"ll update us on their EUR/USD view as they suggested the cycle would peak "end-July" with 1.3000 as their target. SO far they are less than 50 pips awry and the tepid US equity market response today -0.16/+0.26% reveals cautious tendencies at these elevated levels. EUR/USD at 1.2995 remains pretty well bid so the jury remains out, the 24-hr SMA at 1.2996 reveals we are in very neutral territory here; techies don"t get aggressive until spot takes out 1.3100 topside. Peter.Wadkins@ThomsonReuters.com

Update: While the actually short term top was 1.3333 the cycle gurus were a few hundred pips away from their top. Their direction and read of the trend though was pretty good, their bias was heavily towards the downside, overall I've been pretty impressed. This update was written 9/9/2010 weeks after this cycle guru piece was released.

Intrade Euro Outlook - EUR/USD.DEC10.1.2500 09:30

Crawfords Call

Next week last week of July 2010 and first week August 2010 are suppose to be critical Astrological events. There's a crash predicted and a significant change. Exactly what this change will be , no one knows for sure. We'll have to see if Arch Crawfords predictions pan out. He's noted as one of the best and accurate market forecasters.

I personally will be watching and if he's right, I'll be sold and follow his future calls.
My personal feeling is that it'll be some disaster like a major earthquake, maybe the big one like in California that's been long overdue.

UPDATE: While there was no catastrophic event in the world for this week and this prediction. August 10, 2010 absolutely was a game changer. Some could say it was the Fed Meeting that changed it all, this includes market psychology in general. Whichever you believe, this Bradley Turn date was something predicted and for the S&P and Euro, it was pivotal.

The Elliot Wave Factor

This is the August 9th updated of the USD Index Chart

• I've always grappled with whether the Elliot Theory really was as powerful in real time trading as it was in theory.
• Last November 2009 I can say that the Ellioticians nailed the bottom on the US Dollar index, had you listened to them, you would have caught the bottom and made a pile of money.

• As of this posting July 22, 2010 we'll have to see if they've called the correct bounce on the Dollar index once again, lets take a note that their intermediate top will be around 91 on the index next few weeks to months.
• The Bounce for the USD Index, meaning the end of Wave 2 and the beginning of a Strong Wave 3 was forecast on these charts at around 81.89 level, so we'll see how it unfolds next few weeks.

UPDATE: 81.89 the predicted turn was overshot, it actually overshot in a big way, getting down to about 80.40 or somewhere in that area. Shows use how difficult it can be to really catch a bottom. Certainly August 10, 2010 turn date was significant, it was predicted and cannot be ignored, when a turn is predicted on a particular date, you really have to see by price action if this indeed can be a turning point in the trend.