Cycle Guru Memo July 27, 2010

The cycle gurus issue their weekly missive tomorrow, we hope they"ll update us on their EUR/USD view as they suggested the cycle would peak "end-July" with 1.3000 as their target. SO far they are less than 50 pips awry and the tepid US equity market response today -0.16/+0.26% reveals cautious tendencies at these elevated levels. EUR/USD at 1.2995 remains pretty well bid so the jury remains out, the 24-hr SMA at 1.2996 reveals we are in very neutral territory here; techies don"t get aggressive until spot takes out 1.3100 topside. Peter.Wadkins@ThomsonReuters.com

Update: While the actually short term top was 1.3333 the cycle gurus were a few hundred pips away from their top. Their direction and read of the trend though was pretty good, their bias was heavily towards the downside, overall I've been pretty impressed. This update was written 9/9/2010 weeks after this cycle guru piece was released.

Intrade Euro Outlook - EUR/USD.DEC10.1.2500 09:30